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The prospect of Indonesia invading PNG: could it really happen?

The border of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea at Sota, Merauke

FRANCIS NII

KUNDIAWA – Will Indonesia ever invade Papua New Guinea? It’s an eyebrow raising question. To some people it may sound irresponsible, irrational or insensitive.

Of course there is always speculation and theorising about the why, when and how an invasion could occur and possibly the best people to render a credible verdict are those in diplomatic missions, foreign affairs departments and intelligence networks.

But individuals around the region - like Australia, New Zealand, PNG and Indonesia of course - are entitled to their own conjecture, and I have my opinion too.

Before moving to the substantive question, let me start from the periphery by asking could Indonesia invade PNG if it chose to do so?

It would be a walk in the park. With its military superiority and huge numbers of personnel, it will take only a few hours for Indonesia to effectively take over. Port Moresby would be a pushover.

Indonesia has a population of over 260 million and nearly one million military personnel of whom some 440,000 are active, the rest reserves.

Its air force has 478 aircraft including 120 in an attack capacity and 200 helicopters.

Land assets include 418 combat tanks, 1,131 armoured fighting vehicles, 105 self-propelled artillery pieces, 356 static artillery and 153 rocket launchers.

Its 221 naval assets are less impressive but still overwhelming from a PNG perspective with 12 surface warships and three submarines.

Papua New Guinea with 7,500, 000 people and less than 500 military personnel has zero fighting aircraft, zero land armour and an insignificant number of small vessels. It would not stand a chance of defending itself. It would be a clean sweep of the chessboard not long after those first paratroops floated to the ground.

Now let me go back to the substantive question: will Indonesia ever invade PNG? Thankfully, given the foregoing statistics, my answer is no. Indonesia will never invade PNG. Here’s why.

Apart from external factors like Australia’s great interest in any aggression, Indonesia has a nagging internal revolt to keep her busy. The long-running West Papuan insurgency will continue to provide a buffer for PNG.

Then there’s the topography of PNG itself. Indonesia might find Moresby easy pickings but controlling PNG would be an entirely different matter. If Indonesia still cannot fully contain West Papua after four decades of trying, PNG would be at least as much of a challenge.

Indonesia also learned a lesson from her December 1974 invasion of tiny East Timor with a population of just over 1.2 million people. Dili might have been straightforward but the mountains were an entirely different proposition. Also it had the rest of the world telling it to lay off.

After more than two decades of annexation, serious human rights abuses and the deaths of between 100,000 and 180,000 soldiers and civilians, through United Nations arbitration East Timor eventually gained independence in 2012.

But the big issue for an Indonesian invasion of Papua New Guinea would be Australia. It would be hard for other southern cousins not to be drawn into the conflict, her big fear being that Indonesia would have even more expansionist plans.

PNG strategically serves as a buffer for Australia from any serious aggression from Southeast Asia. Australia will want to keep it that way.

Moreover, Indonesia would not want to draw condemnation, sanctions and even intervention from the international community.

So, in my opinion, Indonesia will not invade PNG – the scenario does not compute.

The problem I see that will create tension and disharmony in the PNG-Indonesia relationship is intrusion and occupancy of PNG territory along the border by Indonesian military.

There have been many instances of border incursions by Indonesian soldiers claiming to be hunting West Papuan rebels. They could just as easily be testing PNG’s sensitivity to such matters – and our ability to do something to thwart them.

The claimed Indonesian Papua border 'shift' – the red zone moves closer to Ok Tedi mine (PNG Blogs)

Indonesia is now reported to be stationing an additional 450 military personnel along its 800km border with PNG.

The ostensible reason is to crackdown on drug smuggling.

But just a couple of months earlier an eastward border 'shift' was said to be more interested in using military “explorers” to assess what resources there are in some border areas.

To me, resources could prove the flashpoint if there is to be one. The task for PNG is to beef up our own military presence and fortify the physical border.

But that takes troop power and money. Two things we don’t seem to have a lot of at present.

So invasion, no. Resource-based incursion, yes. Outcome? It has to be a deal, doesn’t it?

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